Is China Unstable? Foreign Policy Research Institute Wire, July 1999 By Minxin Pei Western attitudes toward China tend to oscillate between two extremes, often with confusing rapidity. Not too long ago China was widely portrayed as an emerging military and economic threat to the West. Its total economic output was projected to surpass that of the United States in two decades. Its military modernization was expected to provide China the capability to project its power far …showed first 75 words of 2152 total…

…showed last 75 words of 2152 total…May 1998. Third, failure to reform will cause rising division within the current moderate-conservative ruling coalition as the more liberal elements become disenchanted and frustrated with the slow pace of reform. A split within the elite has led to political instability before, and could easily do so again. Indeed, although China is unlikely to become another Indonesia today, it is very likely to become one in ten years' time if its leaders are lulled into complacency.